New data shows 2025 was a big year for Chinese renewable energy – a tipping point moment. In China, wind and solar capacity now outstrips its thermal energy grid. For the world’s largest energy market, and one dirtied with the optics of being heavy-handed with fossil-fuels, it’s an undeniable milestone.
The shift is visible in the data. According to the National Energy Administration, China’s total installed power generation capacity reached around 3.9 billion kilowatts by the end of 2025, up 16.1% year on year. Solar capacity jumped 35.4% to 1.2 billion kilowatts, while wind power rose 22.9% to 640 million kilowatts. Together, wind and solar passed the 1.8-billion-kilowatt mark – close to half of China’s total installed capacity – overtaking thermal power by roughly 300 million kilowatts. For the first time, fossil generation is no longer the dominant force on China’s capacity ledger.
That crossover was powered by a record buildout. China added 430 million kilowatts of new wind and solar capacity in 2025, the highest annual total on record. Solar led the charge (pun intended) with 315 million kilowatts of new installations, while wind added 119 million kilowatts, accelerating sharply from the previous year. Analysts point to recent market reforms as a key factor. Rules requiring new renewable projects to sell electricity at market prices have favoured wind developers, where returns have proven more predictable than solar’s increasingly competitive, bid-driven model.
And so solar told a less linear story in 2025. Industry data shows a sharp, policy-driven surge in the year’s first half, but a big slowdown in the second. BloombergNEF has it that global annual solar additions will slack over the next decade, with China’s market facing pressure as subsidies fade and margins narrow. Wind is better placed. Industry estimates put China’s new wind installations at around 120 million kilowatts in 2026.
Under its climate commitments, China is targeting roughly 3.6 billion kilowatts of combined wind and solar capacity by 2035. That includes peak carbon emissions by 2030, and carbon neutrality by 2060.
